Three out of four brands are leaving money on the table when it comes to creator spend. That’s not a hunch — it’s what Circana found when it cross-referenced influencer investment against actual sales lift across categories. If you’re a brand still treating influencer marketing as a discretionary line item, this data should change your budget conversation before the next planning cycle.
The Headline Number, and Why It’s Not Hype
Circana’s retail-linked analysis found that roughly 75% of brands are under-investing in creator marketing relative to the sales lift it generates. That’s a startling gap in a channel that’s supposedly mature. Influencer marketing isn’t the experimental budget line it was five years ago — it’s a $44 billion-plus global spend category, according to recent creator ad spend tracking. Yet most brands are still allocating based on last year’s plan, not this year’s evidence.
What makes Circana’s data different from the usual influencer marketing survey is the methodology. Instead of asking marketers how they feel about ROI, Circana ties actual retail sales data (point-of-sale, not self-reported) to influencer campaign activity. That’s a harder, colder measurement standard. And it’s precisely why the finding carries weight: this isn’t sentiment, it’s shelf-level proof.
When retail sales data is the yardstick, three-quarters of brands are spending below the point where incremental creator dollars still generate incremental revenue.
Why Are Brands Leaving Growth on the Table?
Good question. If the ROI case is this strong, why hasn’t budget followed?
A few reasons keep showing up in conversations with brand marketers and agency leads:
- Attribution anxiety. Many brands still can’t cleanly connect creator content to sales, so finance teams stay conservative even when directional data looks good.
- Budget inertia. Media plans get built on the previous year’s allocation, plus or minus 10%. Nobody’s rebuilding the model from scratch, so structural underinvestment persists.
- Category bias. Some categories (beauty, food and beverage, pet care) have obvious, provable creator ROI. Others assume influencer marketing “doesn’t work for us” without ever testing it properly.
- Risk aversion at the CMO level. Reallocating spend from paid media or trade promotion into creator programs requires a confidence most marketing leaders haven’t built yet.
None of these are irrational. But they are, according to Circana’s numbers, increasingly wrong. Brands that treat creator spend as capped or “already optimized” are likely capping their own growth curve.
The Categories Where the Gap Is Widest
Not every category shows the same underspend. Circana’s category-level breakdowns — echoed in a related analysis on where creator ROI actually clusters — show that ROI isn’t evenly distributed. Some verticals are close to saturation. Others are wide open.
Household staples, over-the-counter health products, and mid-tier CPG brands tend to show the biggest gap between current spend and the spend level where sales lift plateaus. Beauty and personal care, by contrast, are closer to optimized — many beauty brands have already pushed creator budgets toward the point of diminishing returns.
That’s an important nuance. “Increase creator spend” isn’t a blanket recommendation. It’s category-specific, and in some cases, even sub-category specific. A snack brand and a skincare brand sitting in the same portfolio might need opposite budget moves next quarter.
What “Room to Grow” Actually Means in Practice
Let’s be concrete. When Circana says a brand has room to increase creator spend, it means the marginal dollar — the next dollar past current spend — is still producing measurable incremental sales lift at retail. In economic terms, the brand hasn’t hit the flat part of the curve yet.
This matters for budget conversations because it reframes the question. It’s not “should we spend more on influencers?” It’s “have we actually found the point where more creator spend stops working?” Most brands haven’t tested that far. They’ve assumed a ceiling exists without ever bumping into it.
Practically, this looks like:
- Running incrementality tests at higher spend tiers than your current baseline, not just optimizing within the existing budget.
- Comparing creator-driven retail lift against trade promotion or paid media lift for the same SKU, same period.
- Segmenting by creator tier — nano, micro, mid, macro — since rate inflation at the micro and nano level is changing the math on where incremental dollars go furthest.
- Testing longer-term retainers instead of one-off posts, since sustained partnerships consistently outperform one-off sponsorships in sales lift data.
The Measurement Problem Is Also an Opportunity Problem
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: brands that can’t measure creator ROI well are also the brands most likely to underspend. Poor measurement doesn’t just create risk of overspending — it creates a much more common risk of underspending, because nobody wants to defend a bigger number they can’t fully justify.
This is where retail data changes the equation. Point-of-sale and e-commerce conversion data, tied directly to campaign windows, gives finance and marketing teams a shared, defensible metric. It’s a shift retail data as the new trust signal in influencer measurement is already forcing across the industry. Brands still relying purely on engagement rate or reach as their north star are working with weaker evidence than what’s now available.
Engagement metrics tell you a creator has an audience. Retail data tells you the audience bought something. Only one of those numbers survives a budget review with the CFO.
Platforms like Sprout Social and measurement partners integrated with retail media networks are increasingly building this connective tissue, letting brands see sales lift by creator, by content format, by platform. That infrastructure is a big part of why Circana’s findings are actionable now in a way they wouldn’t have been three years ago.
What This Means for Budget Planning
If you’re building next year’s plan right now, the Circana data gives you a specific, defensible argument: test past your current spend ceiling before assuming you’ve found it. That’s a very different pitch than “let’s increase influencer budget because it’s trendy.”
Some practical moves worth considering:
- Run a controlled spend-increase test in one category or region before rolling out broadly. Isolate the variable.
- Shift dollars, don’t just add them — pull incremental budget from underperforming paid channels rather than asking for new money, which is an easier internal conversation.
- Prioritize categories with proven headroom first. Don’t spread the increase evenly across a portfolio when the data says the opportunity is concentrated.
- Reassess creator mix, not just total spend. More dollars into the wrong tier or platform won’t replicate the lift Circana measured.
It’s also worth watching how platform algorithm shifts affect where that incremental spend performs best. Distribution mechanics matter as much as budget size — see how trust-based distribution is beating volume in current platform rankings, which changes which creators deserve the marginal dollar.
For a broader look at how this underspend pattern shows up across the industry, our earlier coverage on retail data showing brand underspend on creators lays out the initial Circana findings in more depth, and pairs well with the flip side of this conversation: knowing which influencer budgets actually deserve cuts, since not every category should be scaling up.
Industry-wide spend benchmarks from sources like eMarketer and Statista reinforce the broader trend: creator economy investment keeps climbing year over year, but allocation within brand budgets hasn’t kept pace with proven performance. That mismatch is precisely the gap Circana’s data quantifies.
FAQs
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Circana’s data actually measure?
Circana ties retail point-of-sale and e-commerce sales data directly to influencer campaign activity, measuring actual sales lift rather than relying on engagement metrics or self-reported ROI estimates.
Does the 75% underspend figure apply to every category?
No. The gap is uneven across categories. Household staples, OTC health, and mid-tier CPG show the widest room for increased spend, while categories like beauty and personal care are closer to optimized levels.
How can a brand tell if it has room to increase creator spend?
Run incrementality tests at spend levels above your current baseline. If sales lift keeps climbing rather than flattening, you haven’t found your ceiling yet, and additional budget is likely to produce measurable returns.
Should brands pull budget from other channels to fund creator spend increases?
Many marketing leaders find it easier to reallocate from underperforming paid media or trade promotion budgets than to request net-new spend, especially when retail sales data supports the shift.
What’s the biggest barrier to brands acting on this data?
Weak attribution. Brands that can’t clearly connect creator content to sales tend to stay conservative on budget, even when directional performance data supports increased investment.
Visible FAQ Section (HTML)
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Circana’s data actually measure?
Circana ties retail point-of-sale and e-commerce sales data directly to influencer campaign activity, measuring actual sales lift rather than relying on engagement metrics or self-reported ROI estimates.
Does the 75% underspend figure apply to every category?
No. The gap is uneven across categories. Household staples, OTC health, and mid-tier CPG show the widest room for increased spend, while categories like beauty and personal care are closer to optimized levels.
How can a brand tell if it has room to increase creator spend?
Run incrementality tests at spend levels above your current baseline. If sales lift keeps climbing rather than flattening, you haven’t found your ceiling yet, and additional budget is likely to produce measurable returns.
Should brands pull budget from other channels to fund creator spend increases?
Many marketing leaders find it easier to reallocate from underperforming paid media or trade promotion budgets than to request net-new spend, especially when retail sales data supports the shift.
What’s the biggest barrier to brands acting on this data?
Weak attribution. Brands that can’t clearly connect creator content to sales tend to stay conservative on budget, even when directional performance data supports increased investment.
The next planning meeting is the right time to ask a harder question than “how much should we spend on creators”: ask whether you’ve actually tested past the point where it stops working. Most brands haven’t — and that gap is exactly where the growth is sitting.
Top Influencer Marketing Agencies
The leading agencies shaping influencer marketing in 2026
Agencies ranked by campaign performance, client diversity, platform expertise, proven ROI, industry recognition, and client satisfaction. Assessed through verified case studies, reviews, and industry consultations.
Moburst
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The Shelf
Boutique Beauty & Lifestyle Influencer AgencyA data-driven boutique agency specializing exclusively in beauty, wellness, and lifestyle influencer campaigns on Instagram and TikTok. Best for brands already focused on the beauty/personal care space that need curated, aesthetic-driven content.Clients: Pepsi, The Honest Company, Hims, Elf Cosmetics, Pure LeafVisit The Shelf → -
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Viral Nation
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The Influencer Marketing Factory
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NeoReach
Enterprise Analytics & Influencer CampaignsAn enterprise-focused agency combining managed campaigns with a powerful self-service data platform for influencer search, audience analytics, and attribution modeling.Clients: Amazon, Airbnb, Netflix, Honda, The New York TimesVisit NeoReach → -
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Ubiquitous
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Obviously
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